Quotes from the news wire:
At some point production should pick up, allowing for the restocking of inventories and supporting sales, but it is unclear exactly when this will occur, the recent spread of the Delta variant and persistence of broader supply chain issues has generated some downside risk to the near-term outlook.
Found on Reuters 3 years ago
It continues to send a pretty favorable signal about labor market conditions.
Found on Reuters 3 years ago
We are maintaining our forecast for the BLS report to show 900,000 jobs added in July, with 550,000 coming from the private sector.
Found on Reuters 3 years ago
It now looks like the BEA data will need to be revised up, we continue to expect inventories to boost GDP growth significantly in third quarter following the big pullback reported through the second quarter. We also think equipment spending will continue to increase at a solid rate in the third quarter.
Found on Reuters 3 years ago
Through some of the noise in the data it still looks like the trend for filings keeps moving lower over time.
Found on Reuters 3 years ago
It remains difficult to use the ADP data to accurately predict the BLS data.
Found on Reuters 3 years ago
We think the labor market will keep recovering over time.
Found on Reuters 3 years ago
This decline came after very strong productivity growth in the middle quarters of the year, and we think that the pandemic has led to a shift in economic activity away from some low-productivity sectors that has led to firming in productivity growth through some of the noise in the quarterly readings.
Found on Reuters 3 years ago
The broad message from the ADP report is consistent with what we expect the government data to show, the labor market continued to add jobs on net in November but the pace of job growth slowed.
Found on Reuters 4 years ago
The continuing claims data also may exhibit some volatility around the holiday season, but the trend in the data appears to have weakened over the past month or so.
Found on Reuters 4 years ago
The recent volatility in the claims data is likely due to seasonal adjustment issues that we often see around the holiday season, and we saw a similar pattern across the weekly claims readings around Thanksgiving in 2013 when the holiday fell on November 28 like it did this year.
Found on Reuters 5 years ago
We continue to believe that the underlying trend in job growth has slowed lately but that it remains decent.
Found on Reuters 5 years ago
The link between sentiment and spending is not especially tight, but the recent decline in consumer sentiment could be a sign that the spending data will soften soon.
Found on Reuters 5 years ago
There could be more noticeable effects on various growth components, with weakness in related equipment spending and exports and a partially offsetting increase in inventories.
Found on Reuters 5 years ago
Inventories could be more of a negative factor for future growth than we had anticipated.
Found on Reuters 5 years ago
It supports our view that the tightness in the labor market is generating upward pressure on compensation.
Found on Reuters 5 years ago
It looks like the labor market remains in solid shape despite significant weakening in business and consumer sentiment in recent months and we don't see much evidence that the government shutdown spilled over into the private labor market in an especially meaningful way.
Found on Reuters 5 years ago
While we think a tightening labor market will keep upward pressure on pricing in the US, the recent strengthening in the dollar, along with declines in various commodity prices related to food and energy, likely depressed the June import price data.
Found on Reuters 6 years ago
We had been expecting a move up like this because we thought that temporary auto plant shutdowns would lead to more initial claims filings during the week ending June 30 than normal for comparable weeks in recent years, we think that the temporary plant closures, which usually are on and off for about a month in the weeks around July 4, are likely generating noise in the claims data now, so we do not think that the increase in claims over the past two weeks is an especially negative sign for the labor market.
Found on Reuters 6 years ago
The upward trend in the new home sales data contrasts with the signals from many other recent housing indicators, which have turned weaker lately, we still think that real residential investment will be close to flat in second quarter.
Found on Reuters 6 years ago
The claims data suggest that the labor market is healthy and that job growth will remain strong.
Found on Reuters 6 years ago
While the weakness in the FHFA house price data raised some concerns that the trend in house price appreciation had started to shift lower, so far, the Case-Shiller data do not support that view.
Found on Reuters 6 years ago
Early on in our tracking of the second-quarter housing data, it looks like real residential investment will decline during the quarter.
Found on Reuters 6 years ago
The tone of the Empire State survey suggests that we are moving past the recent weakness in the manufacturing sector.
Found on Reuters 8 years ago
The longer they wait, the more data they have. If their view is playing out that the economy is on a better footing than suggested by the last payroll report, I think they'd become more likely to hike, we think May is going to prove to be an outlier in terms of job growth and we're going to see some pickup in the coming months, but I think The Federal Reserve wants to see that really before hiking.
Found on Reuters 8 years ago
The upward revision to services consumption also has favorable forward-looking implications for second quarter GDP growth.
Found on Reuters 8 years ago
It is likely the inventory correction and stronger dollar continued to weigh on the output data for the first quarter, and we remain hopeful that the worst of the drags from these factors have passed and that activity will pick up shortly.
Found on Reuters 8 years ago
Through some of the ups and downs in the weekly series, it looks like the trend in initial claims has improved over the past month, signaling that the labor market continues to improve despite weakness in several other recent economic reports.
Found on Reuters 8 years ago
Through some of the noise in the data, it appears that home sales are continuing to trend higher over time off of historically low levels. We maintain our view that the housing market will continue to recover.
Found on Reuters 8 years ago
It appears that at least some of that deterioration was related to temporary factors including an unfavorable shift in the weather and perhaps layoffs of temporary workers following the holiday season.
Found on Reuters 8 years ago
The combination of more job openings and more people quitting could result in pay increases, and we have seen a few other signs that wages have increased as the labor market has tightened.
Found on Reuters 8 years ago
Going back a half year or so, it had seemed that the weakness in the economy was fairly isolated in the manufacturing sector as well as a few other areas, mainly energy and exports, but we now have these surveys showing that the service sector has weakened as well over the past few months.
Found on Reuters 8 years ago
The JOLTS report is consistent with our view that the labor market will continue to improve, but that we will see some moderation in job growth.
Found on Reuters 8 years ago
We think that the drag from inventories in the fourth quarter will be more severe than we had previously believed.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
The September report does little to alter our view that the housing market is continuing to recover. We view the new home sales data as unreliable and many other more reliable housing indicators have been sending upbeat signals lately.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
The impacts are expected to be almost negligible given the size of the announced job cuts relative to the overall labor force as well as the fact that unemployment rates for veterans tend to not be that much different than unemployment rates for non-veterans.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
We should not get too worried about the signal from the new home sales data at this point.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
We are moving past the weakest period for energy-related capex ... which should be a positive development for the manufacturing sector.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
It looks like the combination of limited available inventory and a decline in the share of distressed sales in the market continue to put upward pressure on prices.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
We find it reasonable to excuse the bad news in the February data because of the unusually cold weather during the month and think a weather-related rebound is likely in March.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
The snowstorms ... may depress payrolls modestly, likely by less than 10,000 jobs.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
The ADP report shows that payrolls continue to increase at a solid pace through February.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
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