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Current neutral ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) conditions look fairly likely to transition to El Niño this summer/fall. However, there is considerable uncertainty as to how strong an El Niño would be, if it does develop.
Found on CNN 1 year ago
I think it’s important to convey that seasonal forecasts in April always have lots of uncertainty, but this one has even more uncertainty than normal given the potential combination of a robust El Niño but also a very warm tropical Atlantic.
Found on CNN 1 year ago
El Niño tends to have its strongest impacts on hurricanes forming in the deep tropics, so, Caribbean storms tend to really get knocked down in El Niño years, due to increases in vertical wind shear.
Found on CNN 1 year ago
We anticipate that the 2023 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have slightly below-average activity, current neutral ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) conditions look fairly likely to transition to El Niño this summer/fall. However, there is considerable uncertainty as to how strong an El Niño would be, if it does develop.
Found on CNN 1 year ago
This remarkably quiet Atlantic tropical cyclone period is likely to end soon.
Found on CNN 2 years ago
One reason for( the) reduction in Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecast from Colorado State University is due to development of below-normal sea surface temperatures in subtropical Atlantic, when the subtropical Atlantic is cooler than normal, it can sometimes favor increased shear in the tropical Atlantic.
Found on CNN 2 years ago
The models are generally forecasting a more conducive pattern for the Atlantic by the time that we get to the middle of August, air is forecast to more consistently rise over Africa and sink over the tropical Pacific. This pattern should result in reduced vertical wind shear.
Found on CNN 2 years ago
You're right ! It sure has been quiet in the Atlantic lately, we had a brief flurry in late June/early July with Bonnie and Colin, but it's been dead since then.
Found on CNN 2 years ago
There is very little correlation between hurricane activity prior to 1 August and what occurs the rest of the season.
Found on CNN 2 years ago
The latitude at which easterly waves come off of the coast of Africa tends to shift northward over the next couple of months, so getting systems coming off of the coast at 8-10 ° N is fairly common for this time of year.
Found on CNN 2 years ago
We have certainly had quiet starts to the season that ended up very busy, for example, we didn't get our first named storm in 2004 until August.
Found on CNN 2 years ago
Other factors are more important for Gulf hurricanes, wind shear, mid-level moisture and having pre-existing disturbances that develop once they reach the Gulf( or track into the Gulf from elsewhere). Of course, if all those conditions are already there and the waters are warmer than normal, that could certainly exacerbate issues.
Found on CNN 2 years ago
This type of scenario typically enhances conditions for a robust Caribbean low-level gyre that typically spins up late-season storms. We saw this scenario on steroids last year. Let's hope we don't have another October-November like we had last year, but I think the large scale should favor another active end to the season.
Found on CNN 3 years ago
Climatologically, what ends your hurricane season is too much wind shear, so La Niña tends to prolong the hurricane season since it tends to reduce shear, of course, last year is an example of La Niña prolonging the season... on steroids.
Found on CNN 3 years ago
La Nina was certainly a significant enhancing factor in last year's hurricane season, we had five major hurricane formations after 30 September. The most major hurricane formations in October-November in any season prior to 2020 was two. Talk about shattering a record !
Found on CNN 3 years ago
Climatologically, what ends your hurricane season is too much wind shear, so La Niña tends to prolong the hurricane season since it tends to reduce shear, of course, last year is an example of La Niña prolonging the season... on steroids !
Found on CNN 3 years ago
The primary reasons why we're going above average is the low likelihood of a significant El Niño event and the relative warmth in the tropical( Atlantic) but especially the subtropical eastern Atlantic.
Found on CNN 3 years ago
There aren't any big outliers this year, while the( European model) was pretty low last year.
Found on CNN 3 years ago
On that date, we had an unnamed tropical storm( e.g., added after the season) and Beulah.
Found on CNN 4 years ago
On that date, we had an unnamed tropical storm( e.g., added after the season) and Beulah, we have never had two hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico simultaneously.
Found on CNN 4 years ago
Overall, we increased the other forecast numbers because overall conditions look even more conducive than they did a few weeks ago.
Found on CNN 4 years ago
We don't necessarily need to have a La Niña event to support a very active season, we currently have cool neutral ENSO conditions, that is, colder than normal but not cold enough for La Niña threshold.
Found on CNN 4 years ago
Vertical wind shear is extremely critical for hurricanes in the Atlantic, strong vertical wind shear, the change in wind direction with height, tears apart hurricanes and disrupts their intensification.
Found on CNN 4 years ago
It is fairly common for hurricanes to track towards Hawaii, but they usually dissipate or at least weaken considerably before impacting the islands, for example, both Lane and Olivia impacted Hawaii in 2018. Also, in 2016, both Lester and Madeline threatened Hawaii.
Found on CNN 4 years ago
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