Quotes from the news wire:
China will drive nearly half this global demand growth even as the shape and speed of its reopening remains uncertain.
Found on CNN 1 year ago
The prospect of large-scale disruptions to Russian oil production is threatening to create a global oil supply shock.
Found on CNN 2 years ago
The bloc’s monthly calibration of supply may give it the flexibility to meet incremental demand by ramping up swiftly or adjusting output lower should the demand recovery fail to keep pace.
Found on Reuters 3 years ago
Some emerging countries with lower access are in a more difficult situation, with likely new COVID waves slowing economic activity and mobility, the situation is currently deteriorating sharply in some large non-OECD oil consumers (Brazil, Iran and India).
Found on Reuters 3 years ago
Fundamentals look decidedly stronger, the massive overhang in global oil inventories that built up during last year’s COVID-19 demand shock is being worked off, vaccine campaigns are gathering pace and the global economy appears to be on a better footing.
Found on Reuters 3 years ago
Despite the additional curbs ... and a reduction in our forecast of 2020 non-OPEC supply growth to 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd), global oil inventories could build by 700,000 bpd in Q1 2020.
Found on Reuters 4 years ago
As science, technologies, markets, policies, and costs evolve each year, we take those changes into account in our analysis. We will do so again as we prepare for next year's edition of the World Energy Outlook.
Found on Reuters 5 years ago
Oil continues to dominate road transport demand, despite an increase in consumption of biofuels, electrification of mobility, with the partial exception of two and three wheelers, makes only limited inroads. This pathway suggests little change in Southeast Asia from today's congested roads and poor urban air quality.
Found on Reuters 5 years ago
However, there have been clear and, in the IEA's view, very welcome signals from other producers that they will step in to replace Iran's barrels, albeit gradually in response to requests from customers, there is certainly scope for other producers to step up production.
Found on Reuters 5 years ago
Rising production from Middle East Gulf countries and Russia, welcome though it is, comes at the expense of the world's spare capacity cushion, which might be stretched to the limit, this vulnerability currently underpins oil prices and seems likely to continue doing so.
Found on Reuters 6 years ago
As such, the Middle East’s market share of global oil supplies rose to 35 percent, the highest since the late 1970s and an eloquent reminder that even when U.S. shale production does resume its growth, older producers will remain essential for oil markets.
Found on Reuters 8 years ago
Although market balance is upon us, the existence of very high oil stocks is a threat to the recent stability of oil prices, although stocks are close to topping out, they are at such elevated levels, especially for products for which demand growth is slackening, that they remain a major dampener on oil prices.
Found on Reuters 8 years ago
Any changes to our current 2016 global demand outlook are now more likely to be upwards than downwards, as gasoline demand grows strongly in nearly every key market, more than offsetting weakness in middle distillates, slower demand growth in OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries is not unexpected; it represents a return to the norm.
Found on Reuters 8 years ago
India could be replacing China as the main engine of global demand growth, reforms to the rules allowing refiners to directly import crude oil are all part of a general trend towards liberalisation that should underpin India's growth momentum.
Found on Reuters 8 years ago
If there is to be a production freeze, rather than a cut, the impact on physical oil supplies will be limited, with Saudi Arabia and Russia already producing at or near record rates and very little upside seen apart from Iran any deal struck will not materially impact the global supply-demand balance during the first half of 2016.
Found on Reuters 8 years ago
With Saudi Arabia and Russia already producing at or near record rates and very little upside seen apart from Iran any deal struck will not materially impact the global supply-demand balance during the first half of 2016.
Found on Reuters 8 years ago
For prices there may be light at the end of what has been a long, dark tunnel, but we cannot be precisely sure when in 2017 the oil market will achieve the much-desired balance. It is clear that the current direction of travel is the correct one, although with a long way to go.
Found on Reuters 8 years ago
Meanwhile, Iran’s return to the market has been less dramatic than the Iranians said it would be; in February we believe that production increased by 220,000 bpd and, provisionally, it appears that Iran’s return will be gradual.
Found on Reuters 8 years ago
There are clear signs that market forces ... are working their magic and higher-cost producers are cutting output.
Found on Reuters 8 years ago
Although we do not formally forecast OPEC oil production, in a scenario whereby Iran adds 600,000 bpd to the market by mid-year and other members maintain current output, global oil supply could exceed demand by 1.5 million bpd in the first half of 2016, while the pace of stock-building eases in the second half of the year as supply from non-OPEC producers falls, unless something changes, the oil market could drown in over-supply. So the answer to our question is an emphatic yes. It could go lower.
Found on Reuters 8 years ago
We conclude that the oil market faces the prospect of a third successive year when supply will exceed demand by 1 million bpd and there will be enormous strain on the ability of the oil system to absorb it efficiently.
Found on Reuters 8 years ago
The continuous pressure from shale gas in the United States, stronger climate policies, and especially, the overcapacity and slowdown in China all contribute to the oversupply. This glut will be even more acute if a peak coal demand in China becomes real.
Found on Reuters 8 years ago
For this reason, producers are likely to grow still more competitive on pricing, sour crude markets appear especially oversupplied with discounts versus sweet grades widening. Europe is awash with competing sour crudes from the FSU (former Soviet Union) and Middle East and U.S. sour crudes remained depressed by refinery maintenance.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
The impact of oil's steep price plunge on end users is unlikely to be repeated and economic conditions are forecast to remain problematic in countries such as China.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
But the current forecast is for a mild winter in Europe and the U.S. If it turns out to be true, bulging stock levels will add further pressure and oil market bears may choose not to hibernate.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
This massive cushion has inflated even as the global oil market adjusts to $50 per barrel. Demand growth has risen to a five-year high of nearly 2 million bpd... But gains in demand have been outpaced by vigorous production from OPEC and resilient non-OPEC supply - with Russian output at a post-Soviet record and likely to remain robust in 2016 as well.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
Stockpiles of oil at a record 3 billion barrels are providing world markets with a degree of comfort.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
This surplus crude provides some relief, with OPEC's spare production buffer stretched thin as Saudi Arabia - which holds the lion's share of excess capacity - and its Gulf neighbours pump at near record rates, the shock absorber provided by oil stocks is no longer restricted to just crude. As refineries ran flat out to meet soaring demand for gasoline in top consumers the United States and China, distillate inventories ballooned as a consequence.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
The oil price in this scenario remains close to $50 a barrel until the end of this decade, before rising gradually back to $85 a barrel in 2040, in the low-oil price scenario, the Middle East's share in the oil market ends up higher than at any time in the last forty years.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
With Riyadh showing little inclination to abandon its policy to defend volume rather than price and Iraq striving to at least sustain its record rates, overall OPEC supply looks set to hover around 31.5 million bpd during the coming months.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
Total non-OPEC output next year is expected to contract by nearly 0.5 million bpd as global upstream spending cuts of more than 20 percent impact both new projects and existing production.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
A projected marked slowdown in demand growth next year and the anticipated arrival of additional Iranian barrels - should international sanctions be eased - are likely to keep the market oversupplied through 2016.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
Oil's price collapse is closing down high-cost production from Eagle Ford in Texas to Russia and the North Sea.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
While there is unlikely to be a substantial boost in Iranian production before next year, oil held in floating storage could start to hit world markets before then.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
We expect China, the world's second-largest oil consumer, to keep up its crude purchases despite the recent stock market collapse, currency devaluation and steady stream of negative macroeconomic news. Beijing could also buy extra crude to fill up its strategic reserves.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
The big story this month is one of tightening supply, with the spotlight firmly fixed on non-OPEC, oil's price collapse is closing down high-cost production from Eagle Ford in Texas to Russia and the North Sea, which may result in the loss next year of half a million barrels a day - the biggest decline in 24 years.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
This outlook does not include potentially higher Iranian output in the case of sanctions being lifted.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
Our latest balances show that while the overhang will ease from a staggering 3.0 million bpd in the second quarter of 2015, its highest since 1998, the projected oversupply persists through the first half of 2016.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
While a drop in costs and efficiency improvements will help to offset some of the spending cuts, output is likely to take a hit soon.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
While a rebalancing has clearly begun, the process is likely to be prolonged as a supply overhang is expected to persist through 2016 - suggesting global inventories will pile up further.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
In 2015-2016, net capacity additions will be more than needed, which will cause the global utilization rate to decline, and casts a doubt on the continuation of current unusually high refining margins.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
The oil market was massively oversupplied in 2Q 2015, and remains so today, it is equally clear that the market's ability to absorb that oversupply is unlikely to last. Onshore storage space is limited.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
The experience of the past two years has opened the gas industry's eyes to a harsh reality.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
Despite tentatively bullish signals in the United States, and barring any unforeseen disruption elsewhere, the market's short-term fundamentals still look relatively loose.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
In the supposed standoff between OPEC and U.S. light tight oil (LTO), LTO appears to have blinked. Following months of cost cutting and a 60 percent plunge in the U.S. rig count, the relentless rise in U.S. supply seems to be finally abating.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
Several large LTO producers have been boasting of achieving large reductions in production costs in recent weeks. At the same time, producer hedging has reportedly gone steeply up, as companies took advantage of the rally to lock in profits, it would thus be premature to suggest that OPEC has won the battle for market share. The battle, rather, has just started.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
On the face of it, the oil price appears to be stabilizing. What a precarious balance it is, however, behind the façade of stability, the rebalancing triggered by the price collapse has yet to run its course, and it might be overly optimistic to expect it to proceed smoothly.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
Tentative signs of a demand recovery have emerged with the turn of the year, with a heavy emphasis reserved for the word 'tentative'.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
Yet U.S. supply so far shows precious little sign of slowing down. Quite to the contrary, it continues to defy expectations.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
Not only have product prices lagged those of crude during the selloff - as is common in a downturn - but they have raced ahead of them in the rebound, keeping refining margins remarkably firm, and supporting unexpectedly strong throughputs in once-depressed refining centres such as Europe and OECD Asia, product demand has shown signs of life, with even European demand emerging from a secular decline to show strong growth of 3.2 percent in December and 0.9 percent in January.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
U.S. stocks may soon test storage capacity limits. That would inevitably lead to renewed price weakness, which in turn could trigger the supply cuts that have so far remained elusive, while the U.S. supply response to lower prices might take longer to kick in than expected, it might also prove more abrupt.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
On the face of it, the oil price appears to be stabilising. What a precarious balance it is, however, behind the façade of stability, the rebalancing triggered by the price collapse has yet to run its course, and it might be overly optimistic to expect it to proceed smoothly.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
Unlike earlier price drops, this one is both supply- and demand-driven.
Found on FOX News 9 years ago
The market rebalancing will likely occur relatively swiftly but will be comparatively limited in scope, the price correction will cause the North American supply 'party' to mark a pause; it will not bring it to an end.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
How low the market's floor will be is anybody's guess. But the sell-off is having an impact. A price recovery - barring any major disruption - may not be imminent, but signs are mounting that the tide will turn.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
How low the market’s floor will be is anybody's guess. But the sell-off is having an impact. A price recovery - barring any major disruption - may not be imminent, but signs are mounting that the tide will turn.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
Barring a disorderly production response, it may well take some time for supply and demand to respond to the price rout.
Found on Reuters 9 years ago
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