Blakes 71978

Roj Blake:
Do you think you could forget your superiority complex for a moment and get on with it?

Avon:
All right. But first of all, let us examine the nature of prediction. The human mind is capable of seeing into the short-range future with reasonable accuracy. For example, imagine that you are standing on the edge of a cliff.

Roj Blake:
As long as you're not standing behind me.

Avon:
[pauses] There are a *number* of alternative futures: you could take a pace forward and plunge to your death; the cliff could crumble under your feet - with the same result; a gust of wind could carry you over...

Roj Blake:
All right, all right, yes. But the probability is that I would turn 'round and walk away again.

Avon:
Exactly. You have just made a prediction based on the known facts. A computer works on precisely the same principle.

Roj Blake:
But all you're saying is that prediction is not immutable fact.

Avon:
Right. If you hadn't gone near the cliff in the first place, you wouldn't have had to face any of the inherent dangers.