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I think that President Erdogan has made it very clear that they will do whatever it takes to - in their words - 'secure Turkey', and if that means leveraging Incirlik and other military bases, I'm convinced they will do it, they say they won't discuss a Plan B because the U.S. is an ally but it's clear they have the leverage to shut down Incirlik, and this is their top security priority in the near term - Gulen and not ISIS.

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