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We think China is unlikely to engineer 25% depreciation to counter the impact of tariff as the cost of capital outflows amid the shrinking current account surplus may outweigh the benefit of supporting export, the pressure on RMB depreciation may depend on three near-term factors including the size of China's retaliation package, U.S.'s plan to impose tariff on the remaining $325 billion products and market's assessment on whether the setback is temporary or not.

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