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It’s been pretty impressive how well the consumer has held up over the past 18 months, and not pulling the rug out from under the consumer is pretty much how you get to the soft landing, i think it’s a really, really narrow path, and the Fed’s tone [during its December meeting] doesn’t give me a lot of optimism that they can navigate that without hitting a recession. … If a soft landing is avoiding a recession altogether, then I think that’s a pretty tough task. If it’s a milder recession than recent history, I think that’s still in the cards.

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