The main difference in the speed of recovery between Argentina in post-2001 and Thailand in post-1997 crises is the exports. Fiscal discipline is necessary but not sufficient without export-driven economic growth. Too much debt can result in prolonged stagnation similar to the Japanese lost-decade of 1990s. With inflation risk on the rise, we could see more socioeconomic troubles and political unrest in economies with thin middle class. 2011-2012 will be challenging for many policy makers.

Med Jones

Med Jones is the president of International Institute of Management - A US based think tank specializing in applied strategy in the fields of economics, financial markets, and business operations. Jones is one of the few experts who predicted the global financial crises of 2008. In 2006 he warned about three crises to hit the US in the decade from 2007-2017; the burst of the housing bubble, US national debt, and the social security deficit. His statements and predictions are followed by economic researchers and investment analysts around the world. He is also noted for his contribution of the second generation of Gross National Happiness (GNH) framework, also known as GNH Economics.

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