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The main difference in the speed of recovery between Argentina in post-2001 and Thailand in post-1997 crises is the exports. Fiscal discipline is necessary but not sufficient without export-driven economic growth. Too much debt can result in prolonged stagnation similar to the Japanese lost-decade of 1990s. With inflation risk on the rise, we could see more socioeconomic troubles and political unrest in economies with thin middle class. 2011-2012 will be challenging for many policy makers.

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